The market began to enter "soros period."

From the PE, or from the PB point of view, close to about 3,000 have returned to the market value of the equilibrium value, and low to find the time to bargain basic closed window, the market has been the stage of "Buffett's time" to " Soros time "transition. At the same time, with the economic recovery trend is a clear, quantitative monetary easing policy that has led to long-term side effects of the rise in inflationary expectations caused by the market more concerned about the Federal Reserve monetary policy on the possibility of fine-tuning the beginning of the rise of market expectations. Recently the U.S. dollar, energy and bulk commodities volatility, some investors made some at a loss. We believe that good stocks Mancang investors long-term holders should continue to be patient; and wishes to continue to buy A shares of the investors are now facing a big dilemma, the market had returned to the water level in a reasonable level, rather than underestimate the level of the previous, so either of these investors continue to wait for the opportunity to approach or to pay a higher price. Further higher future market will mainly depend on the progress of the real economy, the pace of the currency, as well as the overall investors are willing to pay a premium for the future to decide. Market is no longer "cheap", "time Soros" Open The market has reached a level above the equilibrium value, cheap to buy time window has closed, if the up and down 1600 points to buy a good species, there may be 1-fold, 2-fold or even higher returns, but now has reached the level of equilibrium. Morgan Stanley, we can observe the stock index in China, we can see that earnings have returned to historical levels in the vicinity; the Hang Seng Index also broadly similar; and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index 20 times in the vicinity of the level is near the equilibrium value . Recognizing that market entry of such a near equilibrium value the fact that we look at the future of the stock market to run a new starting point. If the point is now more important as a watershed, the time belongs to the past, "Buffett's time," is now up to see "Soros time." The value of Buffett's investment is the price of 0.5 yuan to the value of 1 yuan to buy things; and are based Soros is 1 yuan or 1.5 yuan to the value of 1 yuan to buy things, as long as this thing can buy 2 yuan, 3 yuan, so he is the trend of investment. Now the A-share market has been significantly underestimated the difficulty in finding quality, low time to find cheap basic window shut. It follows that the market has entered a trend of investment in time, that is, "Soros time," the. In today's world a similar situation in 1975 Mentality of the market from the current point of view, whether it is retail investors, or institutional investors, the differences are quite large. In fact, one need only look back in history had a similar incident occurred, and then think carefully about the静下心来, we can have a more clear answer. The author believes that the current situation and to compare like with like is the mid-seventies of the last century, the first oil crisis. 1973,1974 occur in very large crude oil prices from soaring, was the fourth time the conflict in the Middle East to Europe and the United States triggered the OPEC oil embargo, which caused the sharp run up in oil prices, which led to inflation in Europe and the United States, the world's central banks had to push up interest rates sharply. Prior to European, American and Japanese economies are running high, as oil prices lead to inflation factors, followed by interest rate increases after the rise to economic and stock market down, with the current situation is very similar. In particular, It is interesting that the author's most recent look at two Buffett the world's stock markets more time, it can be in September last year and in 1974. Looking forward to China's stock market and the U.S. stock market decoupling In that case, we would be able to have occurred during this history of what kind of inspiration? First of all, our greatest concern is the revelation of U.S. and Japanese shares decoupling, that is, the U.S. economy and separated from the Japanese economy. We have taken note of Nikkei Index in the early seventies of the last century around 2000, and in the end of 70's rise to near 7000, which is about 2 times or more; At the same time the Dow Jones industrial average in the 70's almost no early rise in U.S. stocks in a narrow range of vibration between 600 -1000 run. Japan's stock market success in this process from the constraints of the U.S. economy and U.S. constraints, a substantial rise, this is very worthy of our attention. In that case, China will have such opportunities? Many people have given a more positive response, so that Buffett and Soros were seen as such, Rogers the same way that China's stock market may be linked with the U.S.. This link in China's stock market will rise to where exactly to get there? This is worth pondering the question, I personally view is quite positive. One to two years after the crisis is a period of gold investment The seventies of the last century the operation of the market the second important lesson is that post-crisis period of one to two years, the golden era of investment. Because the period of monetary easing, corporate profits will be super-chain is expected to increase, and the mentality of investors has always been difficult to shake off the impact of the past bear market. Combination of several factors that make one to two years after the crisis is to become a gold investment period. This crisis, our country the most difficult time is the fourth quarter of last year, the market is bottoming out of the quarter. Although the first quarter and second quarter year-on-year there will still be negative, but the chain has begun to rise significantly. The current momentum of view, this trend will continue until at least around the middle of next year. Therefore, one to two years post-crisis period of the safest investment because it is accompanied by the rapid rebound in corporate profits. Back to the current market, I believe that despite the short-term adjustment may occur at any time, but long-term investors will not be a risk that the contrary is a good opportunity to buy again. A moderate change in the market background, I believe that investors can start to consider buying shares of quality companies. Because we can no longer be expected to occur in October of last year's ultra-low prices, it was a once in a few decades of the global financial crisis to occur against the background of super-good prices. In future, the Chinese people hope for a better life force will continue to promote vigorous development of China's economy, the stock market in the future will continue to reflect this fact. Therefore, investors have been buying shares held by long-term peace of mind should be; and look forward to Opening of the investors, when the market is adjusted to consider Opening. (The author is chief analyst at China Securities Investment)